DataCrop

The DataCrop Blog

Reading the market before the invoice.

Post-mortems, methodology, and field notes on forecasting commodity prices from public USDA and Federal Reserve data — written by the team that builds the model.

Large -29% headline for winter wheat production year over year, beside a rising weekly wheat-price line chart, with DataCrop branding.
The Forecast Is the Content

Wheat fell 29% and nobody saw it coming. A 13-week forecast did.

On July 10, USDA confirmed winter wheat production fell 29% year over year - the kind of move that torches a food manufacturer's margin plan. The signal was in the public data by spring.

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